The Century of Consequences: Navigating the Supply Chain Crisis Now and Into the Future
By Victoria Crockford
26 Mar
What is the century of consequences?
We are living in an acute period of disruption where Heft’s particular blend of energy and fuel supply chain expertise and Middle Eastern lived experience is being brought to bear in ways we couldn't have imagined even two months ago.
Many people now have a lived understanding of how oil connects to not only their fuel bill but also to food systems and institutional stability.
Before the escalation of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, we sat down with a former client to discuss the energy sector here in New Zealand and they mentioned the concept of the “century of consequences” – that we are living in a time where economic and environmental outcomes are seesawing frantically between the benefits and the pitfalls of decisions made long ago and that we must pay attention to the signals we are receiving now about the critical decisions required for the future. Are they pointing in the direction of the bold or the incremental?
We talked about how today's operating environment will only magnify this effect for all types of organisations, and that we can't afford too many bad calls.
Two weeks later, the choking off of Qatari gas supplies due to the war brought the Government's plans for an LNG gas terminal into very sharp focus, with a recent Newsroom poll showing very little support for the option, including among the Government’s base.
Even if you are of the belief that the economics stack up, the political calculation is very grim when your solution for higher energy prices is stuck, under bombardment, on the Strait of Hormuz.
This during an election year where voters are craving a level of predictability and some relief from the grind of economic stagnation.
How do leaders balance speed and engagement?
The Government is not alone in having to make calculations that might spit out a grim result. Right now, all kinds of leaders – especially in the energy sector – are facing risks related to both moving too fast and moving too slow.
If we wait for more evidence, will the policy window be closed?
If we move too fast or push too hard, will we look out of step or preempt the conditions we need for success?
Do our people have the energy and willpower to respond to more change?
Equivocation is the enemy of agility. To make bold and quick decisions, you must have the organisational infrastructure to do so and to take people along with you on the journey.
But how to achieve that in the context of the dire strait(s) and all of its implications for fuel security, affordability, and national morale?
Why shared purpose matters as much as policies during decision-making
In answer to that question, people often think about the technologies, processes, and policies. These things are absolutely a critical baseline. But often, the real heft that is needed is a shared grounding in agreed purpose, values, and positions on key issues.
When you have a common understanding of the things that really matter, you have a different kind of decision-making muscle in the organisation. One that enables you to decide when to continue to adapt to what is right in front of you with the current tools and strategies, or when to chart a new course altogether.
This is harder, longer work than presenting facts and a short-term plan. As Heft client David Monk, Chief Executive of the Home Foundation, said in a recent LinkedIn post: “It takes longer, requires different conversations and different skills. But it's the actual work”.
What this means for New Zealand’s energy sector – and beyond
So, what does this mean for the energy sector – and our society - during a time of upheaval, where established models are being tested beyond their capabilities? It means sharpening your risk and reputation radar and ensuring you have the strategic communications capability in place.
Heft Communications works with clients to build crisis decision-making capability through:
Strategic analysis: testing assumptions under pressure
Understanding your position through a process of focused discovery that tests assumptions about team capability and capacity, regulatory pathways, and stakeholder expectations in New Zealand's current political environment.
Internal communication: securing team buy in
Getting your team on board with rapid pivots by establishing shared purpose and creating space for difficult conversations about risk tolerance and values alignment.
Focused stakeholder engagement: building (potentially unexpected) alliances
Creating allies, some of whom may be unexpected, who you can rely on to collaborate with and test significant decisions against – critical when policy windows are narrow and the media environment is noisier than ever.
Why this matters for the short and long term
The intersection of global fuel supply disruption, domestic political uncertainty, and the century of consequences asks us to think differently about how and why we make decisions about where to invest and who to partner with.
Ultimately, leaders who invest in the harder, longer work of building shared strategic foundations – rather than relying solely on technical solutions and short-term planning – create the organisational adaptability needed to navigate both immediate crises and long-term structural shifts.