By: Vic Crockford
Date: 10 November, 2026
Uncertainty reigns after this weekend's General Election in New Zealand, with the prospect of a hung Parliament the Damocles sword dangling over the country.
On current count, the Coalition is returning to Government with a weakened majority party. National shed a quarter of its party vote but picked up 42 Electorate seats, creating an overhang of 11 seats and losing its deputy leader in the process. In his equivocal speech at midnight on Saturday, PM Luxon said the evening had delivered an "MMP special". He may well have wanted to use choicer words.
Opposition leader Chris Hipkins may have been hoping for the Democratic groundswell in the United States midterms to turn voters here to the left. Voters did deliver an historic party vote for the Greens, but Labour saw very little benefit, joining National in sub-30% party vote doldrums. Hipkins summed up the confusion of the nation when he said, "New Zealand has spoken, but we're not sure what they said yet".
There are now 16 days to run on Special Votes, which have historically gone in the left's favour, meaning that come November 27, we could see the left bloc pick up enough electorates in those that are currently marginal and enough party votes to be in a negotiating position.
Unfortunately, stability isn't guaranteed after 27 November, even while voters and the business community crave it. If Opportunity decided to force a hung Parliament due to an untenable negotiating position either way, they would be assured of being a short-lived political movement. However, there have been so many wild cards this Election that nearly all observers and commentators – including the Heft team - are taking a "never say never" stance. A Labour and National deal, for example?
Opportunity seizes the moment
This election saw a new political movement take centre stage in New Zealand – the Opportunity Party. Right from the start of the night, Opportunity's party vote sat consistently over 5%, finally landing on 5.96% and providing them with seven, potentially eight, MPs in the next Parliament.
After a decade of building the foundations, the success of Opportunity demonstrates when the mix of a seasoned steering hand (former Labour Minister, Iain Lees Galloway) and a high-performing leader, as Qiulae Wong has proved to be, meets a wave of voter discontent, history can be made. They are the first political party founded independently of existing political movements to make it into Parliament and Qiulae Wong is the first Asian New Zealander to lead a Parliamentary party.
The erosion of the middle ground
Just three years ago, a showing of below 30% for a major party spelled certain death for their leadership. It seems the spectre of split voting that has plagued the MMP regime since its inception has finally delivered its fullest potential short of National or Labour being wiped out completely, with both sitting at just over 29% on the party vote and unable to materially influence any outcome until the counting of special votes is complete.
With a lift in the party vote for the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and with Opportunity hitting 5%, we have more plurality (and more seats) than ever before in our Parliament.
But it has seemingly come at the cost of the centre ground and the political movements that have shaped our country since the 1930s, with vote- splitting campaigns such as that funded by billionaire Harry Mowbray and that run by Te Pāti Māori blamed by some.
The outcome has been dire for National in particular. It has lost most of the leaders of its liberal wing and remaining credibility as a cohesive party in one night. While many New Zealanders endorsed National candidates in their electorates, individual trust did not culminate in faith in the party's direction of travel. The result? No list MPs are returning for National, meaning senior politicians Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Gerry Brownlee, and Chris Bishop are out of Parliament.
Labour too was a victim of vote splitting in many areas, with its party vote lifting but split voting between Labour and Green candidates undermining its chances in electorate seats. Nelson is an example of this, with Labour candidate (and incumbent) Rachel Boyack losing to National candidate Blair Camerson by nearly exactly the number of votes that Green candidate Chris Baillie picked up – despite Labour winning the party vote.
The South Island moves right
On the electorate map, the South Island barely moved. The biggest change was in Te Tai Tonga, the Māori electorate that covers the entire South Island, Stewart Island, the Chatham Islands, and much of central Wellington. Labour’s Mananui Ramsden looks set to reclaim the seat won by Tākuta Ferris for Te Pāti Māori in 2023, with the now independent Ferris trailing in fourth.
But the party vote told a different story. Mainlanders followed the national drift away from the major parties - leaning further right as they did so. NZ First was a notable beneficiary, being the only party to increase its share of the party vote in every southern electorate.
Implications for infrastructure and energy
The centre ground is a stabilising force in any democracy and most certainly in an MMP environment. It seems that New Zealand is far away from many things, but not the economic and political forces shaking up democracies around the world.
Much of our centralised planning system and international investment rests on our relative stability, even where the size of our market can't compete with elsewhere.
Will we still be able to claim to that safe haven after 27 November? Mostly. But our political system has been shaken, and many are wondering whether the death knell of MMP has been sounded.
In the South Island, where considerable investment in energy, housing, and infrastructure is taking place, the notable swing toward NZ First could be as simple as NZ First's support for commercial fishing and mining, both important and contested industries in key constituencies.
From our vantage point in Queenstown, Heft has a birds-eye view of how these conversations are playing out with both candidates and communities. What we are hearing and seeing is that many rural communities feel that the current direction of travel - by National especially - is not speaking to their experience, and they are open to parties that do.
For many, the past decade has felt like a gradual withdrawal of services and attention. The bank branch closes, a local GP shuts up shop, a road deteriorates, and a major energy or data centre project arrives to serve the rest of the country (or the world) while local bills keep climbing. That pattern creates conditions in which a message about being overlooked resonates, and NZ First has been well placed to respond to it.
In a right-bloc scenario, ACT and NZ First would hold greater bargaining power, and the portfolios they secure could shape policy. With Chris Bishop’s exit, Housing, Transport, Infrastructure, and RMA Reform are all potentially in play, and Energy has long been a priority for NZ First’s Shane Jones.
For now, we wait.